These days, wrestling fans can’t seem to go five minutes online without being at each other’s throats. Tribalism online is at its all-time peak, with two major American promotions boasting their own fanbases ready to go to war against the other. Despite all of that, there’s one thing almost every wrestling fan can agree on year after year: the Royal Rumble is a lot of fun. The surprises, the stakes, the countdowns, WWE’s first Premium Live Event of the year always promises to be a can’t miss spectacle. With this year’s Royal Rumble show just around the corner, anticipation is reaching a fever pitch, and when taking a look at this year’s field of competitors, it’s clear to see why. Compared to last year’s Men’s & Women’s Rumbles, this year looks wide open, with each match having a number of major stars in the running that all have a strong case to book their ticket to the main event of WrestleMania 40. So, with that, let’s cast our minds back to last year’s event and take a look at just how much the dynamic has shifted this year with the influx of contenders.
As January 28th, 2023, approached, the Men’s Royal Rumble’s winner seemed a certainty. After a lengthy absence following a torn pectoral muscle, WWE announced that Cody Rhodes would be making his return during the match. Rhodes appeared destined to face Roman Reigns for the Undisputed WWE Universal Championship prior to getting hurt, and thus a Rumble return was the perfect opportunity for the company to correct course and set the ‘American Nightmare’ back on his path towards “finishing the story.” Taking a look at the other contenders according to the bookies, the only other legitimate contender appeared to be Sami Zayn. The former ‘Honorary Uce’ had been a focal part of the company’s overarching storyline throughout the latter half of 2022, and with a babyface turn appearing closer than ever, some fans believed a Rumble win would be the catapult that would send him into WrestleMania in what would’ve been a sensational underdog story.
It wasn’t to be for Zayn, however. His WrestleMania main event story did, in fact kick off at the Royal Rumble, but it would be in the aftermath of Kevin Owens’ unsuccessful challenge to Roman Reigns rather than after outlasting 29 other superstars, as a chair shot to Roman Reigns and the ensuing Bloodline fallout resulted in a Steenerico reunion that saw Kevin Owens and Sami Zayn dethrone The Usos for the Undisputed WWE Tag Team Championship in the main event of Night 2.
Besides Zayn, the remaining options ranged from hopeful to outlandish, with former Rumble winners such as Stone Cold Steve Austin and The Rock (more on him later) ranking ahead of full-time roster members, including Drew McIntyre, Bobby Lashley, and Seth Rollins. On the night, GUNTHER entered the match at number 1 and would go on to set the record for the longest time spent in a Royal Rumble, lasting a whopping one hour, eleven minutes and forty seconds. But when the countdown struck zero and entrant number 30 made his way to the ring, it became very clear that this year’s favourite was leading the betting odds for good reason. Out strutted Cody Rhodes to a thunderous ovation, and after what was a terrific exchange between two Superstars who appear destined to eventually do battle again down the line for one of WWE’s top prizes, GUNTHER was hoisted over the top rope, and thus the main event of WrestleMania 39 was set.
The Women’s Rumble wasn’t all that different either. Since joining The Judgement Day in May 2022, Rhea Ripley has been far and away the biggest star in WWE’s women’s division. Add in the potential chance to right the wrong of WrestleMania 36 by once again taking on Charlotte Flair, and the choice to go with Ripley appeared nailed on. The betting odds suggested that the Women’s Rumble was slightly more open than the Men’s with usual suspects Becky Lynch, Bayley, and a returning Asuka, as well as fellow rising star Raquel Rodriguez all in with a shout, but ultimately, this one also felt like a forgone conclusion by the time January 28th rolled around. And yet again, the bookmakers were correct, as Rhea Ripley last eliminated her former tag team partner Liv Morgan to win the match and send herself into a SmackDown Women’s Championship match at WrestleMania 39.
It’s worth mentioning that a Royal Rumble being predictable isn’t entirely a bad thing. Both Cody Rhodes and Rhea Ripley were absolutely the correct choices heading into the Road to WrestleMania, and whilst making that booking decision may have come at the cost of potential surprises and shock winners, any other result than these two would’ve meant squandering the company’s two most over stars. That being said, it’s now time to turn our attention to this year’s Royal Rumble, and it’s fair to say anyone looking to place bets will have a much tougher decision on their hands.
Let’s start with last year’s winner and the man who has the chance to become the first WWE Superstar to win back-to-back Rumbles since Steve Austin in 1997/98. For Cody, his motivation remains the same: finish the story. Despite reaching the main event of WrestleMania last year, a Samoan Spike courtesy of Solo Sikoa led to Roman Reigns’ historic Undisputed WWE Universal Championship continuing, and with the ‘Head of the Table’ looking like he’ll still be holding onto the gold one year later, a second Royal Rumble win would give Cody the chance for redemption. Rhodes’ has yet to take his sights of Reigns all year regardless of being on separate brands, and thus it’s fair to say there’ll be a lot of fans expecting him to get the job done once again. There is, however, one rather electrifying obstacle on Cody’s path to redemption.
On the Day 1 edition of Monday Night RAW at the start of this year, Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson made his shocking return to WWE, and after a verbal and then physical confrontation with Jinder Mahal, the Hollywood superstar delivered a shock to the system, as he hinted at coming for his real-life cousin Roman Reigns by suggesting that he may look to sit at the ‘Head of the Table’ himself. For WWE as a company, that is a mouthwatering prospect of a match in terms of star power and something they’ve been trying to put together for years now. Add in the recent news of The Rock joining TKO’s Board of Directors and his subsequent comments confirming his desire to face Reigns at WrestleMania, it feels as though WWE are closer than ever to setting up the biggest dream match they have on their hands. What this would mean for Cody Rhodes after the year he’s had remains to be seen, and it’s worth stressing that The Rock remains a slight outsider compared to Cody and the next two names coming up, but as the saying goes, there’s no smoke without fire. As of writing, I currently doubt that The Rock will enter the Royal Rumble, but surprise entrants are where the magic happens, so it’s certainly one to monitor. Ultimately, The Rock’s looming presence, whilst it may not result in the man himself outlasting 29 other WWE Superstars, could rule out a Rhodes win, as its tough to see a world in which the former AEW EVP punches his ticket to Mania and doesn’t choose to face Reigns.
Sticking on the topic of threats to Cody Rhodes’ story, let’s move on to the man who declared his intent to do so to his face. In what was undoubtedly one of the most shocking moments in company history, CM Punk made his return to WWE just before last year’s Survivor Series went off the air. Since then, Punk’s made it clear that he’s aiming to get straight into championship contention, and he’s also looking to do so by finishing a story of his own. When CM Punk’s initial run with WWE came to an end in 2014, it appeared that the chance to main event a WrestleMania had passed him by, and as the years went on, that dream appeared ever more distant. Fast-forward to today, and Punk miraculously finds himself as the betting odds’ favourite to win this year’s Royal Rumble, with a match against Seth Rollins for the WWE World Heavyweight Championship having already been built to by both men both on and off screen. Rollins’ recent injury scare during his match with Jinder Mahal threatened to throw a spanner in the works here, but with the champion announcing that he will indeed compete at the ‘Grandest Stage of Them All’, this one very much feels like the most likely direction.
The heavy hitters keep coming this year though, as this week’s go-home episode of Monday Night RAW provided another possible outcome for this year’s Rumble with Imperium leader and current WWE Intercontinental Champion GUNTHER warning Seth Rollins that he’s coming after him. This alone unsurprisingly caused last year’s record breaker’s odds to be altered, but it would a Sports Illustrated report just two days later that would cause them to be slashed entirely, as Justin Barrasso claimed that GUNTHER is now planned to both win the Royal Rumble match and dethrone Rollins at WrestleMania 40, with Roman Reigns facing The Rock leaving Cody Rhodes to take on CM Punk. Just one day after the report released, however, Barrasso retracted the story and cited the potential for there to have been a deliberate spread of misinformation throughout WWE. As a result, his chances have taken a slight hit compared to yesterday, with CM Punk still the favourite, although with Triple H and the rest of the company clearly behind him, ‘The Ring General’ as a strong contender this time around.
Finally, on the Men’s side, names such as Drew McIntyre and a returning Sami Zayn have an outside chance. Both have played pivotal roles on RAW throughout the past year, and thus, a WWE World Heavyweight Championship clash at WrestleMania is conceivable for either man. It’s difficult to see them beating out the previous four names however, and therefore the company may look to pivot towards a singles match between the pair, with this potentially being something that the Royal Rumble match provides the opportunity for them to get to.
Now onto the Women’s Royal Rumble, and yet again, this year’s instalment feels much more diverse in terms of potential candidates. Last year’s winner Rhea Ripley’s dominant reign as the Women’s World Champion looks set to continue into Mania, whilst IYO SKY, flanked by her Damage CTRL stablemates, currently holds the WWE Women’s Championship. From the contenders we’re about to break down, two names stand out in particular, with it appearing likely at this stage that both will make it to WrestleMania 40 to face their respective champion of choice, although with a few potential surprises on the horizon, these are far from a certainty.
To start with, let’s take a look at the contender WWE have been the most heavy-handed with in terms of hinting towards a potential Rumble victory, Becky Lynch. The former multi-time WWE Women’s Champion has already made her intention of challenging Rhea Ripley clear, and after a strong 2023 that saw her finally capture the NXT Women’s Championship, the company look set to pit their two biggest female stars against each other at their biggest event of the year, with a Rumble win for ‘The Man’ serving as the launchpad to that very clash. Lynch currently ranks just behind the number one spot according to the bookies, and for good reason, as many feel as though the aforementioned heavy-handedness could be a typical red herring that the company like to throw out at this stage. With that, let’s shift our focus to the woman currently pipping her to the post.
2024 feels like it could very well be the year of Bayley. After forming Damage CTRL in the summer of 2022 alongside Dakota Kai and IYO SKY, it’s fair to say that the group’s early stages were rather underwhelming. Their fortunes have changed drastically however, as whilst Kai still finds herself on the injury shelf, IYO is currently ruling the roost on SmackDown, whilst the additions of a returning Kairi Sane and a now-heel Asuka look set to bring further gold in the form of the WWE Women’s Tag Team Titles as the Kabuki Warriors sooner or later. That leaves Bayley in an interesting spot, as on paper, she’s the only member failing to pull their weight in the group. An eventual turn feels inevitable, with the group visibly drifting further away from their initial leader as the weeks go on, and whilst Bayley has declared to her stablemates that she intends to challenge Rhea Ripley should she emerge victorious this Saturday, it’s clear that a match with IYO SKY is the end goal. As is the case with Becky, Bayley’s Road to WrestleMania also feels like a story the company are capable of telling without a Rumble victory, although in this case, I feel that setting the story in motion with Bayley securing her Mania spot would add an interesting layer to the angle, with a title match becoming a possibility before the group have the chance to make their move in kicking her to the curb.
Now that our heavyweight contenders are out the way, it’s time to delve into some of the potential surprise winners that oddsmakers consider to be in with a shot this time around. First up is Liv Morgan, who’s been absent from in-ring action since July of last year. Despite her absence, Morgan has consistently hovered just below Bayley and Becky Lynch ahead of this weekend, and with it having been Rhea Ripley who put her on the shelf in-storyline, it’s clear to see why. A revenge story makes all the sense in the world for Liv, and there’s no doubt that the Tampa crowd would come unglued for her return. Nevertheless, Morgan ranks just outside of the category of ‘likely’ purely due to her status being unclear, and thus it remains to be seen whether she’ll be involved in the match at all, let alone emerge victorious.
Next up is one the WWE Universe has been waiting for, Jade Cargill. The company rolled out the red carpet for the former TBS Champion last September following her AEW exit, although despite initially making a number of backstage appearances, Cargill is yet to make her in-ring debut, with reports suggesting that she’s still developing in the Performance Center in order to ensure she’s ready when the time comes. In the mind of many fans, that time could be now, as a potential Royal Rumble victory could be on the cards. A debut Rumble victory would be unprecedented, but considering the level of hype Cargill’s signing garnered, it’s not inconceivable that the company would look to immediately position her as the megastar that many feel she’s destined to become in the industry. Personally, I don’t quite fancy Cargill’s chances on what would be her first attempt, although that’s not to say she won’t be in the match entirely, as whilst she may not be ready for her full-time run to begin just yet, a Rumble cameo could provide her with the chance to show her skills and keep her in the forefront of the WWE Universe’s minds after what’s been a quiet few months.
Another potential surprise entrant, and one that feels even more likely than Jade Cargill despite not officially being with the company as of writing, is Trinity, or as she’s likely to be known should she return to WWE, Naomi. The former Knockouts World Champion’s time with TNA appears to have come to an end, and with reports suggesting that a WWE return is on the cards, what better way to make a statement than with a Rumble win? Again though, this one feels like more of a bold prediction than a likely one at this stage, although a strong performance in her return would go a long way towards reestablishing Naomi as a top tier talent for the company. Speaking of Naomi, it would be remiss of me not to mention Mercedes Mone here, formerly known to the WWE Universe as Sasha Banks. The former IWGP Women’s Champion’s future has been up in the air over the past few months, and unlike her former tag team partner, should she make her way back to WWE, she’d instantly become a major favourite to win here. “Should” is the key word here though, as Fightful’s Sean Ross Sapp has been adamant in recent weeks that Mone is AEW-bound, although if there was ever a talent that could pull a swerve of this level at the last minute, Mercedes is certainly up there.
Finally, the likes of Nia Jax and Bianca are also worth a mention. Jax has been an unstoppable force since making her WWE return last year, and off the back of a major victory over Becky Lynch on RAW, it’d be fair to expect Jax to have significant plans heading into WrestleMania. In the case of Belair, the ‘EST’ initially looked set to face Charlotte Flair in non-title action at this year’s Mania, but with Flair now out of action with tears to her ACL, MCL, and meniscus, the company could now pivot to reinserting Belair into the title picture. The lack of apparent direction in both of these cases is certainly something to monitor, however this may be a case of the aforementioned surprise entrants filling these voids, with the prospect of Belair taking on a Jade Cargill, Naomi, or even Sasha Banks in a rematch of their WrestleMania 37 classic more than making up for missing out on Belair vs Flair.
Comparing this year’s Royal Rumble to last year’s, its clear that anyone looking to place a bet will have a much tougher decision on their hands than they did 12 months ago. This is both a credit to WWE’s competence over the past year in terms of building up credibility with their top stars and their ability to attract top tier talent such as CM Punk and Jade Cargill following the completion of the TKO merger and Triple H solidifying his control over creative. This all comes together to make what are typically WWE’s most exciting matches of the year even more must-see, as on top of potential surprise entrants, there is a genuine intrigue as to who’ll emerge from this weekend with their WrestleMania direction set in stone.
